P2P hot and risk today we are the Wall Street in 80s

text / Xu Guoyun public number: Xu Fu Kee

Although only half of the

in 2014, but the degree of development of the P2P industry from the point of view, this year has been defined as P2P officially entered the first year of China’s financial system.

recently, I often ask my friends a question: "why P2P will explode in 2014?" although this problem as you asked why Li Jiacheng would become the richest man as rather baffling but sometimes rather baffling problems, but always give us an answer.

some people say that because P2P innovative business model, but in fact this business model has emerged for 10 years, absolutely nothing new, so not. Some people say that because P2P has the spirit of the Internet, and service grassroots, user experience is good. But the spirit of service is not only now, not to mention the number of crooks before the 2014 market is still very small, the user experience should be better.

so what’s the answer? My answer is, two numbers, 2.2:1 and 100%.

to 2014, the proportion of China’s debt scale and GDP has reached an alarming 2.2:1, China’s corporate debt rate has exceeded 100%, the highest in the world. These two figures are sufficient to explain why P2P broke out in 2014.

is now in Chinese, each completed 1 yuan GDP, you need to have 2.2 yuan lending to support such a huge loan scale, the traditional banking system has been unable to support the emergence of pluralistic financing system will become inevitable. At the same time, the overall debt ratio of Chinese enterprises remain high, has become more than 100% of the world’s highest value.

this also means that in the next 3-5 years, the enterprise loan market will face a huge risk. For financial institutions, the risk is not what a good thing, but it really is great scourges, as Wall Street’s famous phrase "risk is profit". Financial institutions to make money, precisely because it has the ability to risk management, through risk pricing, risk hedging and the use of a variety of risk tools in the risk of profit.

of course, China’s financial institutions are an exception. In the current China monopoly, semi closed system of financial markets, banking institutions because of their financial monopoly enjoyed high profit opportunities for low deposit loan. They are the spirit of "no risk to profit" business criteria, use of the privilege established channels, to find the "safe" investment projects, to lend money to large enterprises and government agencies, the "rich people", a long time business model which is the most China financial institutions.

but after entering in 2014, the traditional financial institutions have suddenly found that almost all industries have become a high debt, little profit is risky, in line with previous customers safe guidelines has been more and more.

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